Energy experts and downstream operators warn that Nigeria could face another increase in petrol and diesel prices if global crude oil prices rise above $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions involving the United States and Iran.
The warning follows renewed volatility in the global oil market tied to unrest in the Middle East, raising concerns about Nigeria’s exposure to international pricing despite efforts to boost local refining.
Pump prices for petrol currently range between 824 naira and 880 naira per liter across major cities, depending on location and distribution costs. The pricing follows a recent adjustment by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which reduced its ex-depot price by 25 naira to 774 naira per liter in February 2026.
Analysts say the conflict could have far-reaching implications, particularly if disruptions affect the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. The waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles a significant share of global crude shipments.
Global oil prices rose about 10% over the weekend as some oil companies halted tanker movements in the region. As of late Sunday, Brent crude traded at $72.87 per barrel, U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $67.02, and Nigeria’s Bonny Light at $78.62. Analysts warn prices could climb toward $90 or higher if tensions escalate.
Kelvin Emmanuel, an energy expert, said Nigeria remains vulnerable because the Dangote refinery still relies heavily on imported crude.
“Any sharp increase in crude prices will affect refining costs and lead to higher prices for petrol and diesel,” he said, adding that rising war-risk insurance premiums on tankers could further increase costs.
Similarly, Olatide Jeremiah, chief executive of Petroleumprice.ng, said Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude and refined products leaves it exposed to global shocks.
“If crude prices rise, Nigerians should expect higher fuel prices,” he said, noting that more than 60% of feedstock used by the Dangote refinery is sourced abroad.
Jeremiah added that the situation underscores the need to boost domestic crude production and reduce oil theft, which has limited supply to local refineries.
Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, said Nigeria can no longer shield consumers from global price swings following the removal of fuel subsidies.
“Any increase in crude oil prices will directly impact pump prices,” he said.
However, petroleum economist Wumi Iledare urged caution, saying the global oil market is now more diversified and resilient than during past geopolitical crises.
He said price spikes driven by tensions may be temporary if supply fundamentals remain stable.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria said it is monitoring developments and will respond based on market trends while ensuring steady supply.
The tensions escalated after coordinated strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel, raising fears of broader conflict in the region and potential disruptions to oil supply routes.
Analysts say Nigeria’s continued exposure to global oil market fluctuations highlights the need to increase production, curb theft and ensure adequate crude supply to domestic refineries to stabilize fuel prices.
