Nigeria’s budget process has entered a period of growing uncertainty as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu moves to prepare the 2026 budget estimates, even as the Medium‑Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) await full legislative approval.
Under Nigeria’s fiscal rules, the MTEF and FSP must be approved before a new annual budget can be properly drafted and presented, as they establish the macroeconomic assumptions, revenue projections and spending priorities that guide national spending. However, the delivery of these foundational documents has lagged behind expected timelines, contributing to fiscal anxieties and procedural delays.
President Tinubu recently transmitted the 2026–2028 MTEF and FSP to the National Assembly, urging lawmakers to expedite their consideration so that the budget process can proceed smoothly. The Federal Executive Council had approved the framework earlier in December, and it is now with both the Senate and House of Representatives for approval.
Despite this progress, the deeper issue remains that the budget cycle is already off schedule. Officials and analysts have warned that late submission of the MTEF, which ideally should be completed months before the end of the fiscal year, can disrupt effective planning and undermine the statutory budget timeline. This has fueled concerns about how Nigeria will reconcile economic priorities with revenue constraints and competing national needs.
The ongoing delay highlights the broader challenges facing the country’s fiscal management, including weak revenue mobilization and tight spending pressures. As Tinubu pushes forward with preparing the 2026 estimates, attention will be on how swiftly the legislature approves the MTEF so that the budget process stays on track.
