Vulnerable economies around the world are facing rising energy costs as oil import bills are projected to increase by about $20 billion annually amid surging crude prices driven by tensions in the Middle East, the United Nations said.
The International Energy Agency warned separately that global oil markets could enter a “red zone” in July and August as declining crude inventories coincide with peak summer fuel demand in the Northern Hemisphere.
In a new assessment, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development said a 50% increase in oil prices could significantly worsen economic conditions in oil-importing developing countries, many of which are already under fiscal strain.
Although Nigeria produces oil domestically, it continues to experience rising fuel prices. Petrol prices have increased from about N815 per litre before the recent Middle East tensions to an average of N1,360 per litre, a nearly 70% rise, according to market checks.
The increase has driven higher transportation costs across the country. Data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics showed average intercity bus fares rose to N9,607.41 in April 2026. Intra-city bus fares increased 39.83% year-on-year to N1,397.27, while airfares climbed to N157,355.87. Motorcycle transport costs rose 56.20% to N1,035.69, and water transport fares increased 30.85% to N2,222.99.
UNCTAD said 65 of 75 vulnerable economies are net oil importers, including most least developed countries and small island developing states, making them highly exposed to external price shocks.
The agency also warned that global fuel demand is peaking as the Northern Hemisphere enters its summer travel season, compounded by heatwaves straining power grids.
The International Energy Agency said global oil inventories fell by more than 250 million barrels between March and May, with commercial and strategic stockpiles declining at a rapid pace.
IEA official Toril Bosoni said stock draws are expected to continue into the summer, raising the possibility of historically low inventory levels during peak demand.
She said reopening the Strait of Hormuz, if an agreement were reached, could take six to eight months in the best-case scenario.
The IEA said a coordinated emergency stock release remains possible but is not currently under discussion. It added that about half of a 400-million-barrel release announced in March has yet to reach the market.
The IEA, International Monetary Fund and World Bank recently warned that prolonged inventory shortages, combined with high fuel prices, freight costs and fertilizer prices, could intensify global inflation and strain economic stability.
